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美伊伊斯兰堡和谈不确定性：地缘风险溢价的"未决"定价

US-Iran Islamabad Talks Uncertainty: Pricing of Unresolved Geopolitical Risk

54 篇报告

市场隐含概率预测市场 →

美国会在2026年12月31日前宣布伊朗封锁结束吗？
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

45% Yes 24h -4.6pp

截止 2027年1月1日流动性 19 万美元 Polymarket 原始市场 ↗
美国会在2026年11月30日前宣布结束对伊朗的封锁吗？
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?

36% Yes 24h +1.5pp

截止 2026年12月1日流动性 8 万美元 Polymarket 原始市场 ↗
美国会在2026年10月31日前宣布伊朗封锁结束吗？
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?

21% Yes 24h +1.0pp

截止 2026年11月1日流动性 13 万美元 Polymarket 原始市场 ↗
美国会在2026年9月30日前宣布伊朗封锁结束吗？
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

1% Yes 24h -2.5pp

截止 2026年10月1日流动性 9 万美元 Polymarket 原始市场 ↗
美伊停火协议是否会在 11 月 30 日前持续有效？
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?

41% Yes 24h -1.0pp

截止 2026年12月1日流动性 6 万美元 Polymarket 原始市场 ↗

预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。

叙事时间线

CNBC 快讯 5月29日 18:08

华尔街在5月末为6月押注"伊朗冲突终结"，但高企的风险预算意味着任何预期外的地缘事件都可能触发快速的波动率扩张与风险资产去杠杆——真正的机会不在于方向押注，而在于波动率曲面的错配与跨资产利差的收敛。

Wall Street rides high into June on hopes that the war will soon come to an end. Here's what's ahead

The stock market continues to bet on some sort of resolution will be found with Iran. But there are also no shortages of…

FG 100 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 5月30日 11:49

特朗普私人医生发布声明称总统"健康状况极佳"并"完全适合任职"

Trump’s physician says the president is in 'excellent health' and is 'fully fit' to serve

Trump underwent a CT scan and other heart imaging, along with cancer screenings and other preventative assessments carri…

FG 100 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 5月31日 23:46

亚太市场开盘涨跌互现：特朗普对伊朗协议态度暧昧，地缘风险溢价持续困扰能源市场

Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed as Trump signals no rush on Iran agreement

Asia-Pacific markets were set to open mixed on Monday as investors monitored lingering uncertainty around U.S.-Iran nego…

FG 100 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 6月1日 23:42

亚太股市在地缘风险不确定性中承压走弱

Asia-Pacific stocks set to open subdued amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace talks

Asia-Pacific markets were set to open mixed on Tuesday as investors weighed renewed uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace neg…

FG 100 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 6月2日 15:48

Rubio称美国正与伊朗就核计划进行谈判，参议员向Trump施压要求明确战争策略

Rubio says U.S. is in talks with Iran over nuclear program as senators press for war endgame

Rubio says Iran nuclear talks may advance soon as senators press Trump on war strategy, Strait of Hormuz, Cuba and Venez…

FG 100 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 6月3日 00:50

美伊贸易冲突引爆油价：地缘风险溢价的急性爆发与跨资产传导分析

Oil climbs as U.S.-Iran trade strikes while Trump says negotiations with Tehran underway

U.S. Central Command said Tuesday that it had defeated multiple Iranian ballistic missiles following "attempted attacks"…

FG 80 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 6月3日 10:57

特朗普称伊朗同意不发展核武，但保留"变卦"余地——地缘风险溢价的口头消解与可验证性危机

Trump says Iran agreed to not have nuclear weapons, but 'they can change their mind'

The president was speaking to the New York Post's "Pod Force One" podcast in a wide-ranging interview.

FG 100 读报告 →

BBC 头条追踪 6月3日 20:28

特朗普-内塔尼亚胡"疯狂"通话令伊朗谈判复杂化

'Crazy' phone call between Trump and Netanyahu complicates Iran talks

Israel's PM laughed off reports of friction, but he has tested the patience of other US presidents.

FG 80 读报告 →

BBC 实时新闻流 6月8日 18:31

伊朗最高谈判代表称"我们不信任对方"

'We do not trust the other side' - Iran's top negotiator

Iran's top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has issued a new statement in which he blames "recent tensions" o…

FG 100 读报告 →

BBC 实时新闻流 6月8日 18:46

黎巴嫩总统指控伊朗将其作为与美谈判筹码

Lebanese president accuses Iran of using it as 'bargaining chip'

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has accused Iran of using his country as a bargaining chip in peace talks with the US. In…

FG 100 读报告 →

CNBC 快讯 6月9日 12:29

油价下跌背后：特朗普试图说服市场伊朗协议近在咫尺，但近期暴力事件令协议仍难落地

Oil prices fall as Trump tries to convince market an Iran deal is close despite recent violence

President Donald Trump has repeatedly said a deal with Tehran to reopen Hormuz is close, but such an agreement still has…

FG 100 读报告 →

BBC 实时新闻流 6月9日 12:30

以色列与伊朗再次暂停冲突：谈判时间线解析

Israel and Iran pause fighting again: A timeline of the negotiations

28 February - The US and Israel begin military operations against Iran. US President Donald Trump says the bombing will…

FG 100 读报告 →

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美伊伊斯兰堡和谈不确定性：地缘风险溢价的"未决"定价

US-Iran Islamabad Talks Uncertainty: Pricing of Unresolved Geopolitical Risk

市场隐含概率 预测市场 →

华尔街在5月末为6月押注"伊朗冲突终结"，但高企的风险预算意味着任何预期外的地缘事件都可能触发快速的波动率扩张与风险资产去杠杆——真正的机会不在于方向押注，而在于波动率曲面的错配与跨资产利差的收敛。

Wall Street rides high into June on hopes that the war will soon come to an end. Here&apos;s what&apos;s ahead

特朗普私人医生发布声明称总统"健康状况极佳"并"完全适合任职"

Trump’s physician says the president is in &apos;excellent health&apos; and is &apos;fully fit&apos; to serve

亚太市场开盘涨跌互现：特朗普对伊朗协议态度暧昧，地缘风险溢价持续困扰能源市场

Asia-Pacific markets set to open mixed as Trump signals no rush on Iran agreement

亚太股市在地缘风险不确定性中承压走弱

Asia-Pacific stocks set to open subdued amid uncertainty over U.S.-Iran peace talks

Rubio称美国正与伊朗就核计划进行谈判，参议员向Trump施压要求明确战争策略

Rubio says U.S. is in talks with Iran over nuclear program as senators press for war endgame

美伊贸易冲突引爆油价：地缘风险溢价的急性爆发与跨资产传导分析

Oil climbs as U.S.-Iran trade strikes while Trump says negotiations with Tehran underway

特朗普称伊朗同意不发展核武，但保留"变卦"余地——地缘风险溢价的口头消解与可验证性危机

Trump says Iran agreed to not have nuclear weapons, but &apos;they can change their mind&apos;

特朗普-内塔尼亚胡"疯狂"通话令伊朗谈判复杂化

'Crazy' phone call between Trump and Netanyahu complicates Iran talks

伊朗最高谈判代表称"我们不信任对方"

'We do not trust the other side' - Iran's top negotiator

黎巴嫩总统指控伊朗将其作为与美谈判筹码

Lebanese president accuses Iran of using it as 'bargaining chip'

油价下跌背后：特朗普试图说服市场伊朗协议近在咫尺，但近期暴力事件令协议仍难落地

Oil prices fall as Trump tries to convince market an Iran deal is close despite recent violence

以色列与伊朗再次暂停冲突：谈判时间线解析

Israel and Iran pause fighting again: A timeline of the negotiations

市场隐含概率预测市场 →

Wall Street rides high into June on hopes that the war will soon come to an end. Here's what's ahead

Trump’s physician says the president is in 'excellent health' and is 'fully fit' to serve

Trump says Iran agreed to not have nuclear weapons, but 'they can change their mind'