Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Yes 隐含概率

-1.4pp

24 小时变动

0.0pp

1 小时变动

10 万美元

流动性

2026年10月5日

交易中 · 截止

预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。

隐含概率走势

早期走势来自 Polymarket 公开价格历史（12 小时粒度），近期来自本站每小时快照。

Yes · 3%No · 97%

关联线索与报告

报告：巴西举行高风险大选，美中竞争与债务阴影笼罩相似度 0.66 线索：巴西举行高风险大选，美中竞争与债务阴影笼罩相似度 0.66

结算规则（原文）

Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Brazil on October 4, 2026. A second round will be held if no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any candidate wins this election in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the result of the first round of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the elec…

数据来源：Polymarket 公开接口（只读）。在 Polymarket 查看原始市场 ↗

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