预测市场 / 政治与选举
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
14%
Yes 隐含概率
-1.5pp
24 小时变动
+8.0pp
1 小时变动
6 万美元
流动性
2026年10月5日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 14%No · 87%
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结算规则（原文）
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by di…