BBC 实时新闻流 4月20日 14:48
特朗普否认以色列操纵其发动对伊战争：地缘叙事战的宏观对冲情报解读
Trump says Israel 'never' talked him into Iran war
FG 100
读报告 →
市场隐含概率 预测市场 →
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? 47% Yes 24h -4.0pp
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? 0% Yes 已结算 · No
- Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) 20% Yes 24h +2.5pp
- Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? 36% Yes 24h -2.0pp
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? 14% Yes 24h +0.5pp
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
叙事时间线
BBC 实时新闻流 4月20日 15:49
外交能否让位于更多冲突？
Could diplomacy give way to more conflict?
FG 35
读报告 →
BBC 实时新闻流 4月20日 18:04
伊斯兰堡为美伊潜在谈判加强安保 - 地缘风险溢价的模糊定价
Roads closed and security heightened as Islamabad prepares for potential US-Iran talks
FG 80
读报告 →