BBC 商业 9月8日 11:59
借款人降息预期落空：抵押贷款利率意外回升的宏观交易含义
Borrowers expecting mortgage rates to drop have hopes dashed
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美联储9月利率决议：通胀数据阈值博弈与no-trade信号
Fed September FOMC Rate Decision: Inflation Data Threshold Game and No-Trade Signal
市场隐含概率 预测市场 →
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? 2% Yes 24h -0.2pp
- Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? 48% Yes 24h +2.0pp
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? 2% Yes 24h -0.4pp
- 美联储会在2026年10月会议后加息25个基点吗？ Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?69% Yes 24h +4.0pp
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? 77% Yes 24h +9.5pp
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? 47% Yes 24h +12.0pp
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
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