市场隐含概率 预测市场 →
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? 47% Yes 24h +12.0pp
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? 2% Yes 24h -0.4pp
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? 77% Yes 24h +9.5pp
- 美联储会在2026年10月会议后加息25个基点吗? Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?69% Yes 24h +4.0pp
- Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? 48% Yes 24h +2.0pp
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? 47% Yes 24h -9.0pp
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注(隐含概率),不是事实,也不构成投资建议。数据来源:Polymarket(链上预测市场),仅作信息参考;部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
叙事时间线
BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 17:17
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BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 17:17
美联储在新领导层下努力维持利率稳定
Fed has fought to hold interest rates under new leadership
FG 100
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BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 17:17
美联储加息预期:宏观影响与交易逻辑解析
US central bank expected to raise interest rates - we'll explain what it means for your money
FG 100
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CNBC 快讯
◆ 50 9月16日 18:16
美联储重启加息:货币政策方向性转折与跨资产定价重估
Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year
FG 100
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BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 18:17
美联储称尽管地缘政治不确定性,经济活动正以"稳健步伐"扩张
Economic activity expanding at 'solid pace' despite geopolitical uncertainty - Fed
FG 75
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BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 18:17
美联储加息后的政策博弈:特朗普将如何回应?
How will Trump react?
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BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 18:30
美联储加息后的 Warsh 首秀:利率路径与风险溢价的定价重构
Fed chairman to take questions shortly
FG 80
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BBC 实时新闻流
◆ 50 9月16日 18:46
Warsh reminds that the Fed has a mandate to help stabilise prices
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BBC 实时新闻流 9月16日 19:15
美联储对欧央行加息的"不预判"表态与溢出效应评论
The ECB recently raised its rate - here's what Warsh says about it
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