美伊潜在协议的宏观对冲交易框架

1. 核心事实剥离

事件本质：特朗普与伊朗在持续冲突期间宣布停火框架协议基本谈妥，协议将重开霍尔木兹海峡但维持非常规管控状态，国务卿鲁比奥暗示今日将有更多进展。〔SRC: "agreement with Iran has been 'largely negotiated'" / "Strait of Hormuz 'will not return' to pre-war status" / "significant progress made, but not final"〕

交易价值判定：trade — 能源地缘溢价快速消解，叠加实际利率回升预期，当前XL