埃塞俄比亚首都爆炸与无人机禁飞：地缘升级与跨资产避险定价

1. 核心事实剥离

埃塞俄比亚首都传出爆炸声、无人机禁飞令重启，前一周政府军与一个新武装联盟在首都以北交火 [〔SRC:"Explosions heard in Ethiopia's capital after drone flights banned"; "It comes a week after fighting erupted north of the capital between the army and a new alliance of armed groups."〕]；最关键可交易变量为"冲突是否外溢至曼德海峡/红海航运通道"与"避险买盘强度"。

**交易价值判定：