Prediction markets cement their status after forecasting Democratic sweep of Congress

1. 核心事实剥离

• 事件本质： 预测市场据报预测国会将出现“Democratic sweep of Congress”，并早于媒体发布选举结果；真正可交易的变量不是预测市场本身，而是这一信息优势是否引发实际利率、信用利差、美元及股权风险溢价重定价。〔SRC〕〔SRC:"Prediction markets projected election results well before media ou