预测市场 / 政治与选举
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
11%
Yes 隐含概率
-1.0pp
24 小时变动
-1.0pp
1 小时变动
9 万美元
流动性
2027年1月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 11%No · 90%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credi…