预测市场 / 地缘政治
中国会在2026年底前入侵台湾吗？
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
Yes 隐含概率
-0.1pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
62 万美元
流动性
2027年1月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 4%No · 96%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations,…