预测市场 / 地缘政治
乌克兰是否会在2026年10月7日袭击莫斯科？
Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 7, 2026?
56%
Yes 隐含概率
+9.5pp
24 小时变动
+0.5pp
1 小时变动
3 万美元
流动性
2026年10月8日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 56%No · 44%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as …