Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

所属事件：Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31? · Jared Kushner

55%

Yes 隐含概率

+2.5pp

24 小时变动

+0.5pp

1 小时变动

4 万美元

流动性

2027年1月1日

交易中 · 截止

预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。

隐含概率走势

早期走势来自 Polymarket 公开价格历史（12 小时粒度），近期来自本站每小时快照。

Yes · 55%No · 46%

关联线索与报告

线索：霍尔木兹海峡危机与美伊地缘紧张升级相似度 0.62 线索：习近平敦促美伊恢复谈判——地缘风险溢价的定价博弈与跨资产传导路径分析相似度 0.60

结算规则（原文）

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity an…

数据来源：Polymarket 公开接口（只读）。在 Polymarket 查看原始市场 ↗

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