Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?

所属事件：Russia military action against EU country by...? · December 31

16%

Yes 隐含概率

-1.0pp

24 小时变动

0.0pp

1 小时变动

4 万美元

流动性

2027年1月1日

交易中 · 截止

预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。

隐含概率走势

早期走势来自 Polymarket 公开价格历史（12 小时粒度），近期来自本站每小时快照。

Yes · 16%No · 85%

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结算规则（原文）

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way…

数据来源：Polymarket 公开接口（只读）。在 Polymarket 查看原始市场 ↗

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