预测市场 / 地缘政治
美国与伊朗停火协议会持续到9月30日吗？
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
87%
Yes 隐含概率
+2.0pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
14 万美元
流动性
2026年10月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 87%No · 14%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones a…