Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

所属事件：Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? · Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)

75%

Yes 隐含概率

+1.1pp

24 小时变动

+0.1pp

1 小时变动

2 万美元

流动性

2027年2月1日

交易中 · 截止

预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。

隐含概率走势

早期走势来自 Polymarket 公开价格历史（12 小时粒度），近期来自本站每小时快照。

Yes · 75%No · 25%

关联线索与报告

线索：瑞典选举两大阵营得票胶着：可交易性分析相似度 0.67

结算规则（原文）

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only b…

数据来源：Polymarket 公开接口（只读）。在 Polymarket 查看原始市场 ↗

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