预测市场 / 地缘政治
以色列与伊朗停火协议会持续到9月30日吗？
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
95%
Yes 隐含概率
-0.4pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
19 万美元
流动性
2026年10月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 95%No · 5%
关联线索与报告
暂未与 Lisa 的新闻线索建立语义关联。
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a s…