预测市场 / 地缘政治
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
6%
Yes 隐含概率
0.0pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
5 万美元
流动性
2027年1月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 6%No · 95%
关联线索与报告
报告：特朗普：伊朗战争一旦解决，天然气价格将"大幅"下降 报告：伊朗"非常想"达成协议——但核武红线仍是美伊谈判的核心分歧 报告：美伊接近达成协议：地缘风险溢价的终结还是新博弈的起点 线索：习近平敦促美伊恢复谈判——地缘风险溢价的定价博弈与跨资产传导路径分析 报告：特朗普称伊朗仍寻求核武器——美伊谈判破裂与地缘风险重定价 报告：Trump宣称美国正与伊朗"密切合作"——地缘风险溢价的快速收窄与脆弱的休战协议
结算规则（原文）
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that commits Iran to surrender any quantity of enriched uranium has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” A qualifying written instrument must explicitly commit Iran to the transfer of a portion or all of its enriched uranium stockpile outside of Iranian territory and into the custody of an entity other than I…