预测市场 / 地缘政治
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
10%
Yes 隐含概率
0.0pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
5 万美元
流动性
2027年1月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 10%No · 91%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” The moratorium must be for a period of at least one year. A commitment to end enrichment permanently will qualify. A moratorium with no specified end date will qualify unl…