预测市场 / 地缘政治
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?
6%
Yes 隐含概率
+0.3pp
24 小时变动
+0.1pp
1 小时变动
2 万美元
流动性
2026年10月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 6%No · 94%
关联线索与报告
报告：特朗普再次承诺乌克兰战争即将结束：和平预期重燃下的跨资产交易机会与风险识别 报告：泽连斯基称乌克兰准备好"能源停火"，呼吁与普京、特朗普举行三方会谈 线索：特朗普将向泽连斯基施压推动能源停火，称俄罗斯因乌克兰战争"失去对石油的控制"
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substantive de-escalation of the ongoing conflict by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy rega…