预测市场 / 宏观与央行
霍尔木兹海峡交通会在12月31日前恢复正常吗？
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
24%
Yes 隐含概率
+3.0pp
24 小时变动
-1.0pp
1 小时变动
46 万美元
流动性
2027年1月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 24%No · 77%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-da…