预测市场 / 地缘政治
中国会在2027年12月31日前入侵台湾吗？
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
Yes 隐含概率
0.0pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
25 万美元
流动性
2028年1月1日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 12%No · 89%
关联线索与报告
结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a…