预测市场 / 地缘政治
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
85%
Yes 隐含概率
-0.3pp
24 小时变动
0.0pp
1 小时变动
7 万美元
流动性
2026年12月31日
交易中 · 截止
预测市场价格反映交易者的集体押注（隐含概率），不是事实，也不构成投资建议。数据来源：Polymarket（链上预测市场），仅作信息参考；部分司法辖区限制参与预测市场。
隐含概率走势
Yes · 85%No · 15%
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结算规则（原文）
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or …